Markets are difficult. Anyone who says differently is a fool or a liar. Entering this year, many were looking at the potential for inflation to rear its ugly head. However, it has been hard to capitalize. Imagine this: on January 1st, 2022, you were given all the future inflation readings for the year. How would you have invested your money? Gold? Bitcoin (“digital gold”)? Inflation-protected government bonds? The correct answer, and its implications, may surprise you.

It is at the tip of everyone’s tongue. It is the lead story every night on the news. Of course, I’m talking about a recession. Beyond the sensationalist headlines and the actual financial pain felt by millions of Americans lies the question: “What can I do about it?” A pragmatic approach shifts the focus from worrying to doing. These periods are never fun for anyone involved, but they are expected throughout history.

Most things in finance can be simplified into a simple supply versus demand equation. Without having to take an Economics 101 course, changing one or both sides of the equation will affect the price of the good or service in question. Think about the exorbitant prices people are willing to pay for popular sporting events or the hottest Christmas toy – a classic case of demand overwhelming the available supply. On the flip side, the discount bin at a department store represents oversupply related to current demand. Our present inflation predicament is a result of abnormalities in both supply and demand.

The rogue thunderstorm blowing into this situation is the standoff between Russia and the West by way of Ukraine. I don’t pretend to be an expert in geopolitical matters, so I won’t attempt to forecast the outcome. However, plenty of investors are taking measures to protect their portfolios from any escalation on that front, which shows in the daily price moves. This isn’t the first flare-up of hostilities, and it certainly won’t be the last. Before hitting that sell button, think about all the prior occurrences and the related outcomes.