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Continuum Wealth Advisors Chief Investment Officer and partner David Rath, CFA, CMT, joined a recent markets conversation to discuss what he's seeing across commodities, currencies, and equity sector leadership. Rath, who manages portfolios for the Saratoga Springs, NY–based fiduciary RIA, described a market environment where several long-dormant asset classes are showing signs of life while most investors remain positioned for the regime of the past decade and a half.
Much of the discussion centered on commodities and how little exposure the average portfolio actually holds. Energy makes up roughly 3% of the S&P 500 and materials about 2%, leaving most diversified investors with minimal participation in the space. Rath shared a story from his time at a large broker-dealer, where a 2011 home-office mandate required advisors to hold 5–10% commodities in client portfolios — a directive that arrived near the peak of the last commodity cycle and generated quarterly conversations with frustrated clients. Today, he noted, the memos have gone the other direction. He pointed to agriculture ETFs breaking out and energy charts as the setups he finds most interesting, while cautioning that narratives like an El Niño–driven supply disruption are already widely known and that price action, not the weather forecast, is the more reliable tell.
On gold, Rath was more measured. He noted that the gold ETF reversed at the anchored VWAP from its all-time high, suggesting the metal may need time to build a base before moving higher rather than continuing straight up from the early-year sentiment surge. He also flagged the U.S. dollar sitting on multi-year trendline support dating back to the 2008 low — a level worth watching, since a breakdown there would historically be supportive of assets priced in dollars, including international equities.
The broader theme Rath returned to was adaptability. U.S. investors have spent 17 years being conditioned to favor one style and buy every dip, and he argued that many would be caught offside if the next stretch doesn't rhyme with the last. On equities, he pointed to healthcare and biotech breaking out, questioned whether semiconductor leadership has more room to run, and observed that software — declared "uninvestable" by some at its March low — has quietly recovered. His view on seasonality was similarly contrarian: when the S&P enters a historically weak September already in an uptrend, the outcome has often been better than the calendar suggests.
